If the first half of this year left you feeling stuck, you’re in good company. Rates stayed higher than most people wanted. Affordability stayed tight. And a lot of folks who wanted to make a move just sat on their hands, waiting for a clearer signal.
So the question I keep hearing, whether someone’s eyeing a place in Scottsdale or weighing options out in the West Valley, is a simple one: will the second half of the year be any better?
Nobody has a crystal ball. But I do have the data, and I look at it every single day. Here’s my honest read on where the Maricopa County market sits right now and what I think you should watch as we head into the back half of 2026.
Quick note before we dive in: everything below is about single-family homes priced under $2 million. The luxury market above that price is its own animal, and blending it in only muddies the picture. If you’re shopping the mainstream market, these are your numbers.
Mortgage Rates: The Same Environment as Everyone Else
Let me clear up a common misconception first. Mortgage rates aren’t really a “Phoenix thing” or a “Maricopa County thing.” We’re dealing with the same national rate environment as everybody else in the country.
What actually moves your rate is you: your credit profile, your loan structure, your down payment, and the lender you work with on a given day. Two buyers in the same Ahwatukee neighborhood can get very different quotes based on those factors alone.
Current mortgage rates for well-qualified borrowers are generally in the low-to-mid 6% range, though the exact rate depends on factors such as credit score, loan type, down payment, and lender pricing. Different lenders may offer a lower interest rate with higher upfront costs, while others may charge a slightly higher rate with lower fees. Comparing multiple loan estimates can make a meaningful difference.
Could rates ease later this year? Possibly. If inflation continues to stabilize, there’s room for rates to drift lower. But I won’t promise you that, because I can’t. What I’ll tell you is this: the first half of the year tested everyone’s patience. The second half may finally start to reward it. And if you’re waiting for 3% or 4% again, I’d gently encourage you to look at the last 50 years of rate history. That was the exception, not the rule.
Home Prices: Stable, Not Crashing
A lot of buyers are quietly hoping for a price collapse. I get it. But that’s not what the numbers are showing, and I’d rather be straight with you than tell you what you want to hear.
Here’s where prices actually sit across our market:
| Metric | Current Value (June 2026) | Year-Over-Year Change |
| Maricopa County Resale Median | $465,000 | Up 1.1% (from $459,994) |
| Greater Phoenix Overall Median | $454,990 | Up 1.1% |
| Average Price per Square Foot | $302.56 | Up 3.2% (from $293.25) |
So prices are essentially flat to slightly up. Not a boom. Not a bust. Just steady.
Now here’s the nuance most headlines miss. Even though nominal prices are up only about 1% over the last year, cumulative inflation over the past few years has far outpaced that growth. That means, in real terms, homes have become slightly more affordable relative to general living expenses and earnings than they were at the frenzied peak. Your dollar has a bit more leverage today, even if the sticker price looks similar.
For sellers, that’s reassuring. If you’ve been worried your home lost value, the data says otherwise for the vast majority of the mainstream market. For buyers, it means waiting doesn’t guarantee a better deal. Prices aren’t running away from you, but they aren’t collapsing beneath you either.
Sales Activity and Inventory: The Market Woke Up
This is where I get genuinely encouraged. If the market has felt quiet to you, you weren’t imagining it, but the recent numbers tell a clear story: activity is picking up.
Let me walk you through the Greater Phoenix picture as of early July:
- Active listings (excluding under contract): 24,566, down 4.3% year over year.
- Listings under contract: 8,144, up 5.7% year over year.
- Closed listings for June: 7,257, up 9.2% year over year.
- Contract ratio: 33.15, up 10.5% year over year.
- Days of inventory: 101.5, down 8.6% year over year.
And zooming into Maricopa County specifically, resale closings in June hit 5,887, up 12.3% year over year. That’s a meaningful jump.
Put simply: there’s slightly less competition among sellers than a year ago, more homes are going under contract, and more deals are actually closing. The pent-up demand people have been sitting on is starting to trickle out. That’s a healthier, more balanced market than the one we saw twelve months ago.
The Valley Is Not One Market — It’s Many
Here’s the piece I really want you to understand, because it changes your whole strategy. Maricopa County isn’t a single market. It’s a collection of very different micro-markets, and right now they’re pulling in opposite directions.
Stronger for Sellers (Northeast & Core East Valley)
Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Chandler are all in solid seller’s market territory. Inventory is tighter there, partly because higher-end sellers pull their listings from the market during the hot summer months, thereby keeping supply restricted.
Stronger for Buyers (Outer-Ring & West Valley Suburbs)
Buckeye, Goodyear, and Surprise still clearly favor buyers. There is more supply relative to local demand, which means more negotiating room, seller concessions, and closing cost assistance if that’s where you’re shopping.
This is exactly why I encourage folks to keep an open mind about geography. Your budget might stretch a lot further just a few zip codes over, and the leverage you have as a buyer changes dramatically depending on where you land. A move that’s tough in one part of town can be very doable in another.
A Few Things Worth Knowing
- New construction has softened. New home sales in Maricopa County were down 20.1% year over year in June, and builders have pulled back on new starts. What that means for you: the resale market is increasingly where the action is. If you were counting on a brand-new build with massive, desperate builder incentives, there is less of that to go around than there was a year ago.
- Foreclosures are up a little — and that’s okay. You’ll see plenty of online voices trying to scare you about a foreclosure wave. Don’t buy it. Yes, notices have ticked up, but we’re still running roughly 50% below the historical norm for our county. The vast majority of borrowers who fall behind today have substantial equity, which means they can choose to sell on the traditional market rather than lose the home. This is not 2008. It’s not even close.
- The Housing Act is law, but don’t expect a sudden flood. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act officially became law today (July 11, 2026). While it places strict new limits on large institutional investors aggressively buying up additional single-family inventory, it does not force them to immediately liquidate their existing portfolios. If you were waiting for a massive wave of investor-owned homes to hit the MLS all at once, that isn’t happening.
The Bottom Line
The second half of 2026 probably won’t be perfect. But it looks significantly more active than what we’ve been through.
Rates may ease if inflation cooperates. Prices are holding steady rather than crashing, and affordability has quietly stabilized. Sales are picking up, and demand is starting to emerge. If you’ve been waiting for a sign of progress, this is a reasonable one.
But here’s the truth the countywide numbers can’t capture: your situation is specific. What’s happening in Fountain Hills is not what’s happening in Buckeye, and a smart strategy in a seller’s-market zip code looks nothing like one in a buyer’s-market one. The averages are a starting point, not an answer.
That’s where I come in. If you want to understand what these trends actually mean for your home, your neighborhood, and your timeline, let’s talk it through together. No pressure, just a straight, data-grounded conversation about your options.
Jeffrey Daniels, Associate Broker
Century 21 Arizona Foothills, Phoenix, AZ
602-975-3566